This month we’re looking at the peculiarities that make up the U.S. real estate market as we get into 2026. That includes why 8% of Americans might move in 2026 (and why that's still not enough), the $2,000-per-month reality driving builders to spend more when sales drop, and how an $80 trillion wealth transfer is rewriting the rules of home buying.
First, the forecast. And what a 9% sales rebound really means.
The 2025 mid-year report said that 26 million Americans could move – roughly 8% of the population. Predictions maintain that’s going to be about the same in 2026.
Sounds like recovery…until you realize that's still 30% below historic 1960s mobility rates.
More numbers that add to the picture:
One important note: we're always working to make our data more actionable. After conversations with others in the industry, we've decided to shift our likely mover tracking to the household versus the individual level. Not only is this intuitively easier to use and understand, it also more accurately captures likely home movers.
Overall what we’re seeing is stabilization, not recovery. Inventory is building, sales are picking up, but affordability remains the anchor dragging on broad recovery.
Mortgage rates averaged 6.17% at the end of October, after peaking higher earlier in the year.
Remember those predictions of 6.1% by mid-2025? The market had other plans.
Meanwhile, something unprecedented happened. In June 2025, new homes became cheaper than existing homes for the first time on record. The median new home was $401,800 versus $435,300 for existing (an 8% gap). By Q1 2025, that gap narrowed to just $14,600 nationally.
Most buyers still assume new costs more. That perception gap is costing you sales.
For evidence, we put forth how the Southeast continues to outperform:
What you can do now:
📍 Audit your pricing messaging: Lead with affordability and total cost of ownership even if they buy new
📍 Study migration patterns in your markets and identify your next growth pocket
📍 Correct the perception gap market by market
For builders, every unsold home is hemorrhaging money from your business.
Monthly carrying costs for a $300,000 unsold home commonly range from $2,000 to $3,000 or more, depending on local property tax rates and financing structures.
That includes taxes, insurance, utilities, maintenance, and lending costs.
Do the math: $24,000 to $36,000 annually per unsold unit.
While automakers cut U.S. production in response to slowing demand, builders have sustained or increased project activity, particularly in key migration markets.
This might sound counterintuitive at first but think about it: you can't just turn off a three-year land development pipeline.
Southeast builders get this. They're reporting 8% growth with matching increases in digital marketing budgets to target migration-driven buyers.
It’s a pretty easy “would-you-rather”: spend $10K monthly on marketing or $30K in annual holding costs? I’ll take the 10K every time.
What you can’t forget however, is spending that marketing dollars where it’ll have the most impact.
Determine your marketing ceiling
📍Maximum justified marketing spend = unsold inventory × monthly holding costs
📍 Deploy it strategically: double down on digital where migration data shows movement
📍 Test aggressively and cut channels that can't prove ROI
The average active buyer spends about 3 months searching. But here's what most builders miss: the full home purchase journey, from first research to closing, can easily exceed 300 days in today's market.
Buyers browse. They gather funds. They watch rates. They wait. And continue to wait.
Your October buyers last month? They're likely your September 2025 visitors.
More than 10 million life events annually prompt housing moves. Births, marriages, divorces, new jobs. These are the most predictive factors for transaction timing. Yet most builders only track the last 60 days of the journey.
You're missing 80% of the story.
Action steps:
📍Start treating website visitors like future buyers, not current tire-kickers
📍Tag and track anonymous visitors from day one
📍Build nurture campaigns that acknowledge the 10-month reality
Single women now represent 18-20% of all homebuyers, continuing to outpace single men. But walk into most sales centers, and the experience is still built for couples.
One builder told me about a single woman buyer who visited three communities. At each one, someone asked if her husband or father was coming.
She makes $250K as a VP of Marketing.
Almost goes without saying, but yeah. She bought elsewhere.
Demographic shifts are generational as well. An estimated $80 trillion in assets will pass from baby boomers and the Silent Generation to Gen X and Millennials by 2045. Much of this is already flowing into down payments.
This explains the disconnect our customers keep seeing: traffic with low stated incomes but high close rates.
In migration markets like the Carolinas, a growing portion of homebuyers (especially under 40) are attending showings with parents in tow. I saw this myself at three open houses near me. Every single one had young couples touring with parents. Dad was asking the hard questions. Mom was checking the school ratings.
The kids? Following along.
Action steps:
📍Build sales materials that speak to both generations
📍Feature investment returns for parents alongside lifestyle benefits for buyers
📍Train your sales teams to recognize and engage the full buying committee
👉 Calculate your real holding costs
Multiply $2-3K monthly by your unsold inventory. That's your marketing budget ceiling. Anything less and you're choosing to lose money.
👉 Track the full journey
Extend visibility beyond 60 days. Your CRM shows when someone becomes a lead. But what about the 240 days before that? October's anonymous traffic contains next summer's buyers. Start capturing them now.
👉 Create dual-audience content
Young buyer benefits AND parent investor returns. Feature both in your materials. Train sales teams to engage multiple decision-makers. Stop assuming one person holds all the cards.
Our WhengineTM identifies these early-journey visitors and multi-generational buyer patterns in your traffic data. We help you see who's really shopping and when they'll actually buy.
Schedule a demo to see your traffic's hidden patterns.
2026 won't be about riding a recovery wave. Success will come from spending smart when holding costs hurt, tracking buyers from first click to closing, and marketing to the people writing checks and not just those filling out applications.
The builders who understand this math will capture market share while others wait for a recovery that's already here. Just not in the form they expected.
Audience Town helps you know who's moving in your market, where, and why.
- Ed Carey - CEO & Founder, Audience Town